A major shift may be coming to the bond market, according to Bespoke Investment co-founder Paul Hickey.
He sees a more conducive environment for higher rates materializing in a weekly chart of the 10-Year Treasury note yield going back to 1986.
According to Hickey, the data suggests the yield is retesting its latest lows and will bounce.
“We’re really approaching that level right now which is around 2.20% on the 10-Year yield which we would expect would hold some support and then see yields start rising again,” he told CNBC’s “Trading Nation ” on Thursday. “Treasurys are extremely overbought right now [relative to trend.]”
He considers it one of the most important charts to watch as volatility grips the market.
“When you get long-term trend lines breaking with a stock, a major index or in this case yields, what you also see is after the initial break of that trend line, you see a test to the downside of that trend line which eventually becomes support,” added Hickey.
The 10-Year Treasury yield was at 2.159 on Friday morning, heading closer to the September 2017 low of 2.04%. He notes the downward pressure is being exacerbated by growth concerns created by the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.
“Right now, the sentiment towards this just being a permanent state of tension between China and the U.S. has reached an extreme,” said Hickey.
Hickey sees it contributing to an unusual divergence in the market.
“Just in this month of May, we’ve seen equities underperform Treasurys by a massive amount,” he said.
He believes there will be a resolution between the U.S. and China, and growth concerns will ebb. In response, Hickey predicts the Street will back off its “extreme” rate-cut expectations, yields will push higher and the curve will steepen.
“If rates rise, that should be a better backdrop for equities in this environment,” said Hickey, who expects 10-Year yields to rise above 2.5% on a trade war resolution.