Long-time market bear David Tice is warning investors a recession is about to bear down on the United States.
Tice believes the global economic slowdown is infiltrating the country.
“The big question: Is the U.S. in a recession or about to enter one?” the investor told CNBC’s “Trading Nation ” on Wednesday. “We’re either there or within two months away from that.”
Even though the major indexes have rebounded from last week’s major decline, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 2-year Treasury rate on Wednesday for the second time in a week. The inversion is widely considered an ominous sign for the economy’s direction.
“There’s certainly a lot of risk to the market here,” said Tice, who’s known for his well-timed decision to sell his Prudent Bear Fund to Federated in 2008 just as the financial crisis was unfolding. “I’m very, very worried about Europe and Asia where the declines are significant.”
It’s not the first bearish call Tice has made this year.
In February on “Trading Nation,” he called the sharp market rally off the historic December lows a “dead cat bounce.” The S&P 500 has soared 17% this year but is virtually flat over the last 12 months.
As for Tice’s timing of a massive pullback in the current environment, he suggests it may happen months after a recession grips the U.S. due to the 2020 election.
‘It’s dangerous to be short right now’
“It’s certainly possible we can rally another six or nine months because we have [President Donald] Trump [who] does not want to see the market go down in front of the election,” he added. “It is dangerous to be short right now.”
Tice’s solution to the risky environment is to turn to gold.
“I do love gold,” Tice said. “Gold has even done well in this period of a stronger dollar. It’s skyrocketed against virtually every other currency in the world because people are not trusting paper money. “
As of Wednesday’s close, gold was trading above $1,500 an ounce, up almost 20% over the past three months.
Disclosure: David Tice has holdings in gold and gold miners.